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The CPI whether innovative high concern

Release:2012-9-18 9:28:52  Hits:1619


BEIJING, May 11 (Yang) National Bureau of Statistics will announce today the main economic and operating data for April. The recent continuous fluctuation of the national vegetable prices, oil prices, housing prices, the trend of the consumer price index (CPI) to pay close attention to by the parties. The analysis was widely predicted that the April CPI rose may be between 2.6% to 3%, is expected to exceed 2.7% in February, or hit a new high for the year.
Vegetable prices "high fever" CPI, or the highest year high
In March of this year, China's CPI rose 2.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. However, analysts believe, pork and vegetable prices rebound, plus an increase in the base period factor contribution, April CPI rose could rebound to about 2.8%, on the red to 3% may not even rule out, hit a new high for the year. The main judgment is based on the lagged impact of the production overheating, soaring housing prices and other issues in the first quarter in some industries, will result in the second quarter, inflation pressure, coupled with the rebound in food prices.
National vegetable prices "fever" broad based, as the most recent events that affect people. Across the country from late April to early May, the price of vegetables has been high, multi-regional vegetable prices have been more expensive than the price of pork. Development and Reform Commission, the economic situation room director of school work, said earlier that the expected steady up food prices in the second quarter, compared with the price of pork and grain, vegetable prices rise beyond forecast, but the short-term factors, CPI pay more attention to the medium-and long-term factors, not impact on CPI.
"Should not allow agricultural products (15.67,0.01,0.06%) CPI Pushing Hands, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission of Agricultural Economics dialects previously thought last year, the CPI has two push hands is the price of meat and oil, and this year may be food prices and the price of sugar.
CIC Securities macroeconomic analyst Xing slightly analysis, higher food prices will be the CPI major stimulus to the housing and imported crude oil prices rose will also play an important role in boosting crude oil prices rose at a high level, likely resulting in non-food prices rose to reach 1%. Food non-food added to the expected April CPI rose 3%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month.
Societe Generale Securities chief macroeconomic analyst Dong that the slight rebound in the April CPI rose the most important reason is that, in April continuation of the decline in addition to the price of pork, eggs, vegetables, aquatic products and other food prices rise, food prices for the month is expected to be rose 5.5 percent, therefore stimulating the CPI rose 2.8 percent.
Director of the Research Center of Tsinghua University, China and the world economy, said Li Daokui the arduous control rising prices can not be ignored, the severe drought in the North and the South snowstorm makes this year's agricultural production situation is not optimistic, the decline in agricultural production will rapidly evolve into the rise in the prices of agricultural products, while the prices of agricultural products is the most important part of the CPI, I am sure I will pull the CPI to rise quickly.
In addition to price, other economic indicators, the upcoming expected to maintain a positive steady trend According to media reports, a quarter of China's consumer confidence index rose to a new high in the past three years, the strong cyclical as well as strong growth in the output value of high-energy-consuming industries, coupled with the on leading indicators of manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for the better, experts predict In addition to the investment in fixed assets may be slightly down in April, exports, retail sales of consumer goods, industrial added value and other indicators will maintain a rapid growth momentum, do not rule out the possibility of continuing higher.
Not raise interest rates to raise interest rates or differences of opinion in the industry
Rate hike is still not sufficient grounds
PMI data released recently, and May 2, the initiatives of the central bank to raise the deposit reserve ratio, once sparked debate on the economy from overheating. Nevertheless, the view, the price did not appear to accelerate upward trend due to the recent economic and industrial growth in the second quarter, down uncertainties still exist, and the reason for raising interest rates is still insufficient.
On May 2, the central bank the third time in four months, raising the deposit reserve ratio. Raised large financial institutions, statutory deposit reserve ratio will reach 17%. Many analysts said the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio again, the obvious intent of the policy to tighten liquidity, the central bank towards raising interest rates still relatively cautious.
Thereafter, on May 6, the central bank issued 14 billion yuan of the 3-month central bank bills, the three-year 110 billion yuan of central bank bills, a total of 124 billion yuan, including the 3-year central bank bills the successful rate fell two basis points, which is the central counting rate second consecutive downlink. The analysts believe that the ability to lock the funds due to the 3-year central bank bills very strong weakening of the market is expected to raise interest rates.
Inflation pressure or pro-rate hike
Despite a series of regulatory measures, including the real estate industry, but the price upward pressure still exists, the attention of the market interest rate hike will not relax. Experts said that the new price factors to the current market price movements, combined with the rebound in the price of pork, the rise in consumer prices this year's government work report set out control is difficult to achieve the target of about 3% of the work.
The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently released Economic Blue Book 2010 CPI increase has transferred to 3.5%, from 2.1% forecast in December last year.
In addition, it is worth noting that Australia has hiked interest rates by 0.25% to 4.5%, six times in the past six months to raise interest rates, after India, Brazil to raise interest rates in emerging economies, reflecting Asia-Pacific emerging markets on concerns about the risk of the economy overheating. At this point, the "BRIC", in addition to Russia to cut interest rates, countries have been stepping up recovery of mobility.
Analysts pointed out that due to the upward adjustment of the deposit reserve rate has been very limited, Australia and other emerging countries to raise interest rates in the second quarter of this year to raise interest rates means that China soon will be. But by the property market regulation will take some time to see the results, the rate hike may be delayed until July, that after the announcement of the macroeconomic data of the second quarter.
Guoxin Securities Linsong Li said that the end of the first half, the possibility of dual rate Qi moving very large. CPI year-on-year growth rate in May, on the one hand the possibility of more than 3% of the very large, from both the macro-economic indicators, macroeconomic greatest uncertainty is that real estate, if the real estate is not cooled significantly, macroeconomic in difficult to fall in the second quarter, the central bank use price tools to raise interest rates means proactively to stabilize the economy will greatly increase the probability of further warming. (Commercials)